Overview: Every year, our investment advisor Larry Swedroe takes a look back at the investing lessons the markets provided in the past year. This year brings us 7 lessons, which we will bring you in three parts. In 2011, the markets offered investors a chance to revisit a few remedial courses by teaching lessons it had introduced in prior years. So, this year’s list includes a few reminders that we are just as likely to lose our discipline in good times as we can in bad times.
Lesson 1: Ignore All Forecasts - All Crystal Balls are Cloudy
Financial analyst Meredith Whitney made a forecast that caused quite a stir in December 2010, when she predicted “50 to 100 sizable defaults” in the municipal bond sector in 2011, totaling “hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of defaults.” By May 2011, investors had withdrawn money from municipal bond funds for 24 consecutive weeks. Whitney’s prediction might join BusinessWeek’s August 1979 forecast of “The Death of Equities” among the worst of all time.
The massive scale of problems that Whitney had anticipated did not occur because governments have taken actions by cutting spending and raising revenues. Unlike the federal government, all states except one are required to balance their budgets. As a result, budget gaps have been closed by greatly reduced services, renegotiation of contracts with union members regarding wages and benefits, layoffs of public employees, and increased taxes and fees. These actions have gotten results. And intermediate-term municipal bonds were among the best-performing asset classes in 2011.
The following is another example of why all market forecasts should be ignored, no matter how revered the source. In February 2011, Bill Gross (dubbed the “bond king”) announced that the world’s biggest bond fund had reduced its U.S. government-related debt holdings from 22 percent in December 2010 to just 12 percent in January 2011, the lowest in two years. By April, PIMCO had announced it had eliminated government-related debt entirely from its flagship fund, saying that bond yields had reached unsustainably low levels given the scale of government debt obligations and the chance of a correction when the Federal Reserve System ended its quantitative easing program.
In August, Gross admitted he had made a mistake. Interest rates continued to fall, defying the forecasts of the vast majority of professional investors, including those of the 16 primary dealers who make markets in government debt. A corollary lesson is that timing the market is just as much a loser’s game in bond markets as it is in equity markets.
Lesson 2: Make Sure Your Investment Plan Incorporates the Virtual Certainty That Crises Will Occur, and Will Do So With Great Frequency
We cannot know what form crises will take, when they will occur, how deep they will be or how long they will last. However, we do know they will occur. Therefore, you must be sure to avoid taking more risk than you have the ability, willingness and need to take. If you do not, you are likely to allow emotions such as fear and panic and the noise of the markets to cause your plan to end up in the trash heap. Once you sell, there is never a green light that will let you know that it is once again safe to invest.
While bear markets are painful, there is no good alternative to buy and hold except avoiding risk and accepting Treasury bill returns. Few investors can reach their goals by investing solely in Treasury bills. Timing the market is a mug’s game.
This material is derived from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and the opinions based thereon are not guaranteed. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio nor do indices represent results of actual trading. The content of this publication is for general information only and is not intended to serve as specific financial, accounting or tax advice. To be distributed only by a Registered Investment Advisor firm. Copyright © 2012, Buckingham Family of Financial Services.
